A Twitter thread by Naval.

Very educational talk on coronaviruses from a Johns Hopkins scholar, @AmeshAA. h/t @TokTeacher

https://youtu.be/ZhYcbo7rqEQ

@TokTeacher notes here: http://www.bretthall.org/blog/dr-amesh-adalja-infectious-disease-doctor-from-john-hopkins-on-corona-covid-19 …

(For the record, I’m more concerned than Brett at the moment)

Interesting parts:

[8:33] Coronaviruses are everywhere and peak in the winter / spring every year

[8:48] All of you have had a coronavirus in your life...just not this coronavirus. And you get reinfected with them, because antibodies fall over time.

[15:10] When a US Senator shames drug companies into stopping Zika vaccine development.

[25:20] We are in a mild-moderate pandemic (in life-years potentially lost).

[26:24] This will become endemic and return in the fall.

[27:50] This is not containable. Don’t quarantine or panic. Become personally resilient. Make the healthcare system resilient.

[33:00] Containment will inevitably fail and doesn’t buy much time.

[34:00] Wearing an N95 mask can’t be sustained for long. Wear only if sick.

[35:20] More likely undiagnosed cases than fatalities. 1%-2% fatality rate too high. Discrepancy between Wuhan and non-Wuhan cases. Health care interventions and ICU quality matter.

[37:00] Incubation average is 6 days, but up to 14 possible.

[38:30] mRNA vaccines like the Moderna vaccines can go into trials very quickly. Many, many vaccine candidates.

[40:00] Coronaviruses tend to be stable against mutation (for RNA viruses). There’s no selection pressure to mutate right now and this is spreading easily.

[41:00] Many cases are clinically indistinguishable from the common cold or the flu. It’s not really containable in any country, that’s a temporary illusion.

[43:25] In temperate zones, coronaviruses display seasonality. In tropical areas, no seasonality for respiratory viruses.

[44:00] Vaccine is at least 12-18 months away...if we get one. Coronavirus vaccines didn’t get full effort in the past because they were either too mild and varied (colds) or too short-lived (SARS).

FIN.